EPIC at the AGU Annual Meeting

December 9 – 13, 2024

EPIC is gearing up for its participation in the AGU Annual Meeting, taking place December 9 – 13, 2024.  This meeting is the most influential event in the world dedicated to the advancement of Earth and space sciences.

The meeting will be held in Washington, D.C., and online everywhere. More than 25,000 attendees from more than 100 countries will convene to explore the theme, “What’s Next for Science.” AGU24 will host a diverse community of scientists, students, journalists, policymakers, educators, and organizations who are coming together to share, inspire, collaborate, and engage as a united community grounded to better understand our planet and environment, opening pathways to discovery, opening greater awareness to address climate change, opening greater collaborations to lead to solutions and opening the fields and professions of science to a whole new age of justice equity, diversity, inclusion, and belonging.

Registration

Registration is now open. At this time, you are able to register for the meeting and reserve housing if you plan to attend in person. All attendees must create an AGU account to access the registration and housing site.

Poster Session

Jose-Henrique Alves, Hendrik Tolman, and Neil Jacobs

Topics in this session will include discussions on the motivation and process by which the community can work together to explore, validate, and integrate all aspects important to advancing weather and climate prediction.

Satellite view of Earth focusing on North America with visible landmasses and cloud formations.

Abstracts

Satellite view of a vibrant weather pattern forming, showcasing swirling clouds and a spectrum of colors from green to red.

Advancing Atmospheric River Prediction: Development and Implementation of a High-Resolution Forecasting Framework

Anil Kumar

The Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC) is collaborating with NOAA labs to improve Atmospheric River (AR) forecasts on the West Coast, where ARs contribute up to 50% of annual precipitation but cause severe damage. A new high-resolution model (UFS-Global Nest) focused on California will be deployed on platforms like AWS and Gaea, integrating AI/ML to boost forecast accuracy for AR-related precipitation.

EPIC Systems Architecture: Enabling Rapid Innovation

Kristopher Booker

The EPIC program has enabled rapid innovation within the numerical weather model community through its implementation of various CI/CD pipeline tools, and publicly accessible dashboards. This timely feedback coupled allowed innovation to be quickly assimilated into the UFS model suite.

Blue light patterns with flowing white text representing digital data transmission in technology and cybersecurity
Rows of white numbers streaming across a dark background symbolizing digital data processing and cybersecurity

Computational Benchmark Performance and Portability of the NOAA Unified Forecast System Model Infrastructure

Jong Kim

The Unified Forecast System (UFS)  Weather Model and Applications constantly evolve for the support of short- and medium-range operational forecast systems. EPIC code management team provides a hierarchical test infrastructure overview with extensive computational performance comparison of the UFS Weather Model and Application configurations currently available in the UFS GitHub repositories.

Empowering Forecasting Innovation Through EPIC Community Engagement and User Support

Aaron Jones

The EPIC Community Engagement (ECE) team supports the EPIC program’s innovation through several initiatives, including community training events and the annual Unifying Innovations in Forecasting Capabilities Workshop (UIFCW). The ECE team also coordinates with the EPIC User Support team to update UFS application documentation, compiling technical FAQs, monitoring of support requests, while separately conducting outreach strategies all in an effort to meet the community’s needs.
Sunrise illuminating Earth's horizon in space, highlighting continents and oceans
Starry Night Sky Over Forest Lake

Ensemble-based Data Assimilation and forecasts using a single coupled JEDI/UFS application

Mark Potts

Ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) workflows have historically been extremely complex and cumbersome due, largely to the sheer number of files and I/O that are required. The Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC), in collaboration with NOAA-PSL and the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA), have recently developed a coupled JEDI/UFS system that removes this complexity by incorporating both the ensemble of forecasts and the calculation of the DA analysis into a single executable.

UFS Application Workflow Convergence - Developing a Clear Path to Operations for the Community

Keven Blackman

There was a collaborative effort between the Earth Prediction Innovation Center, Global Systems Laboratory, and NCEP Central Operations, to better understand how community and operational model development can coexist. In the UFS, a broad community exists with differing goals. It has been clear that we need a defined path for research to flow into operations so that workflows do not diverge over time.
View of Earth from space highlighting the blue horizon, white clouds, and dark ocean.

Additional Contributions from the UFS Community

DateSessionPresentor
Monday, December 9, 20248:50 AM – 9:00 AM: Innovation-based Methods for Estimating Observation Uncertainty During Data AssimilationMarriott Marquis
Monday, December 9, 20249:10 AM – 9:20 AM: Strongly Coupled Land-Atmosphere Data Assimilation for Enhancing Understanding and Predictability of Extreme EventsMarriott Marquis
Monday, December 9, 20241:40 PM – 5:30 PM: Use of AEROMMA Aircraft Data to Verify the NOAA’s Unified Forecast System Air Quality Model (UFS-AQM): A Multi-Scenario ComparisonYouhua Tang
Monday, December 9, 20241:40 PM – 5:30 PM: Ensemble Data Assimilation using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Applied with a Deep-Learning Weather Prediction ModelCheng Da
Monday, December 9, 20241:40 PM – 5:30 PM: Exploring 4D variational and hybrid ocean DA methods with JEDI based Sea-ice, Ocean, and Coupled Assimilation (SOCA)Kriti Bhargava
Monday, December 9, 20246:00 PM – 7:00 PM: Status of and Plan for Developing and Implementing Medium-Range Weather, Subseasonal and Seasonal (S2S) Forecast Systems Based on the Unified Forecast System at NOAAYan Xue
Tuesday, December 10, 20248:30 AM – 12:20 PM: Development of a MODIS/VIIRS Base Estimation of Lateral Cover for Low Vegetation: Applications to Dust and Land Surface Modeling within NOAA’s Air Composition ForecastsBarry Baker
Tuesday, December 10, 20249:15 AM – 9:25 AM: Nvidia Earth-2: 2024 AI Research Highlights in hybrid climate simulation, km-scale atmospheric emulation, weather forecasting, ocean coupling, generative AI downscaling & data assimilationMike S Pritchard
Tuesday, December 10, 20241:40 PM – 5:30 PM: Diagnosing Drivers of Extreme Precipitation and Corresponding Errors in the UFSErik Swenson
Tuesday, December 10, 20242:10 PM – 2:20 PM: Ecoforecasting using the community-based Unified Forecast System framework.Tracy Fanara
Tuesday, December 10, 20244:44 PM – 4:53 PM: Evaluation of the Wave Component in the Next-Generation Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFSv13)Saeideh Banihashemi
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:30 AM – 12:20 PM: Progress on the development of Configurable ATmospheric Chemistry (CATChem) component within NOAA’s Unified Forecasting System (UFS)Barry Baker
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:30 AM – 12:20 PM: Evaluating snow and soil simulations in the unified forecast system (UFS)Siwei He
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:30 AM – 12:20 PM: Where is the UFS in 2024?Hendrik L Tolman
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:30 AM – 12:20 PM: The State of the UFS in 2024   Hendrik L Tolman
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:30 AM – 12:20 PM: Using Observed Spatially Varying Leaf Area Index to Drive NOAA UFS Land ModelSanath Sathyachandran Kumar
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:30 AM – 12:20 PM: UFS Application Workflow Convergence – Developing a Clear Path to Operations for the CommunityKeven Blackman
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:30 AM – 12:20 PM: EPIC as a Catalyst for NOAA’s Future Earth Prediction SystemMaoyi Huang
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:30 AM – 12:20 PM: Empowering Forecasting Innovation Through EPIC Community Engagement and User SupportZachary Shrader
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:30 AM – 12:20 PM: Transitioning to Unified Forecast System Applications for OperationsIvanka Stajner;Jessica Meixner
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:30 AM – 12:20 PM: Investigating Land-Atmosphere Coupling in Noah-MP Within the Unified Forecast SystemWeizhong Zheng
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:30 AM – 12:20 PM: Computational Benchmark Performance and Portability of the NOAA Unified Forecast System Model InfrastructureJong Kim
Wednesday, December 11, 20248:30 AM – 12:20 PM: Hierarchical Testing of Air-sea Interactions in NOAA’s Seasonal Forecast SystemWeiwei Li
Wednesday, December 11, 20248:30 AM – 12:20 PM: EPIC Systems Architecture: Enabling Rapid InnovationKris Booker;Anna Kimball
Wednesday, December 11, 20248:30 AM -12:20 PM: Community Modeling and Open Innovation to Advance Earth Prediction Systems PosterJose-Henrique Alves
Wednesday, December 11, 202408:40 AM – 08:50 AM: The impact of vertical model levels on prediction of the MJO teleconnectionsCristiana Stan
Wednesday, December 11, 202410:20 AM – 11:50 AM : High-resolution smoke and dust simulation by NOAA’s Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS-SD)Partha S Bhattacharjee
Wednesday, December 11, 202410:45 AM – 10:55 AM: Hierarchical Testing for Improvement of Stochastic and Deterministic Physical Parameterizations within the Unified Forecast System (UFS)Kathryn Newman
Wednesday, December 11, 202410:55 AM – 11:05 AM : Explicit Effects of Forest Canopy Shading and Turbulence on Boundary Layer Ozone in UFS-SRW Air Quality ModelIrena Ivanova
Wednesday, December 11, 202411:05 AM – 11:15 AM : A Near-surface SST (NSST) Alternative in the Coupled UFS: SkinSSTShan Sun
Wednesday, December 11, 202411:35 AM – 11:45 AM : Evolution of Model Errors and Biases with Forecast Time in NOAA UFS Associated with Tropical Convective VariabilityVijit Maithel
Wednesday, December 11, 202403:10 PM – 03:20 PM : NOAA’s Global Fire Aerosol Prediction and Its Impact on Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) ForecastingLi Zhang
Wednesday, December 11, 202404:20 PM – 04:30 PM : Downscaling NOAA’s atmospheric composition forecasts using advanced AI techniques to create neighborhood scale forecasts of particulate matter and ozoneBeiming Tang
Thursday, December 12, 202409:10 AM – 09:20 AM : Enhancing Wildfire Predictions with NOAA’s Regional Air Quality Online Prediction System in the Unified Forecast System FrameworkJian-Ping Huang
Thursday, December 12, 202410:20 AM – 10:30 AM : Overview of the Next Global Forecast System GFSv17Catherine Thomas
Thursday, December 12, 202411:00 AM – 11:10 AM : Ensemble-based Data Assimilation and Forecasts using a Single Coupled JEDI/UFS ApplicationKeven Blackman;Mark Potts
Thursday, December 12, 202401:40 PM – 5:30 PM : Optimization and implementation of Closure Weights for Convection Parametrization in the UFS Weather ModelJanaina Mayara Pinto Nascimento
Thursday, December 12, 202401:40 PM – 5:30 PM : The Common Community Physics Package and Single Column Model Version 7Dustin J Swales
Thursday, December 12, 202401:40 PM – 5:30 PM : Verification of Operational Global Ensemble Forecast System in the Short to Medium RangeL. Gwen Chen
Thursday, December 12, 202401:40 PM – 5:30 PM : Assessing Structural Differences of Analysis Error Covariance between Ensemble Kalman Filters and Local Particle FiltersMaria Nikolaitchik;Jonathan Poterjoy
Thursday, December 12, 202401:40 PM – 5:30 PM : Assimilating measurements with state-dependent non-Gaussian errorsJonathan Poterjoy
Thursday, December 12, 202401:40 PM – 5:30 PM: The Tomorrow Microwave Sounder program: early observations and forecasting applicationsRyan Honeyager
Friday, December 13, 202401:40 PM – 5:30 PM: Examining UFS’ Representation of Clouds From the SOCRATES Field Campaign Using the CCPP Single Column ModelLily Johnston
Friday, December 13, 202401:40 PM – 5:30 PM: Evaluation of Moist Static Energy Related to Boreal Winter Subseasonal Tropical Variability in UFS P8Nakbin Choi;Cristiana Stan
Friday, December 13, 202401:40 PM – 5:30 PM: Evaluation of Atmospheric River Forecasts from a Global-nest Modeling Framework in the Unified Forecast SystemAnders Jensen
Friday, December 13, 202401:40 PM – 05:30 PM : An Overview of the Development for the next version of NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)Neil P Barton
Friday, December 13, 20241:40 PM – 5:30 PM: Evaluation of ocean components in the coupled seasonal forecasting systemSina Khani;
Benjamin Green;Shan Sun
Friday, December 13, 202405:00 PM – 05:10 PM:  Leveraging of Data Assimilation to Advance S2S Predictions using the NOAA Unified Forecast SystemStefan Tulich