Unifying Innovations in Forecasting Capabilities Workshop
A coordinated effort between EPIC, the UFS, and the UFS-R20
July 18th-22nd at the Holiday Inn in College Park, MD and virtually everywhere
Abstract Submissions are due by June 10th. Registration ends on July 1st.
Workshop Schedule
Schedule subject to updates. Additional information will be added as we plan each session
All times Eastern
July 18, 2022
Presentation PDF:
Mary Erickson – Deputy Assistant Administrator
National Weather Service
Dr. Cisco Werner – Acting OAR Director
NOAA
Dr. Dorothy Koch – Director
Weather Program Office (WPO)
Dr. Stephan Smith – Director of the Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI)
National Weather Service (NWS)
Dr. Neil Jacobs – Chief Science Advisor
The Unified Forecast System (UFS)
Dr. Jamese Sims – Director
National Weather Service (NWS)/Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) Modeling Program
Dr. Maoyi Huang – Program Manager
Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC)
The Unifying Innovations in Forecasting Capabilities Workshop is presented this week by the Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC), The Unified Forecast System (UFS), and The Unified Forecast System Research to Operations (UFS-R2O). Representatives from the three communities will come together to share their vision about how they all work together to achieve the common goal of forecast improvements though advanced model capabilities.
10 Minutes Opening Remarks from NOAA Leadership
20 Minutes for Dr. Koch and Dr. Smith
50 Minutes Presentation by EPIC, the UFS and UFS-R2O
2:30 – 3:00 | BREAK
Dr. Neil Jacobs – Chief Science Advisor
The Unified Forecast System (UFS)
Dr. Jamese Sims – Director
National Weather Service (NWS)/Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) Modeling Program
Dr. Maoyi Huang – Program Manager
Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC)
Dr. Hendrik Tolman – Senior Advisor for Advanced Modeling Systems
National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI)
A representative from EPIC, UFS, and UFS-R2O communities will participate in a panel discussion to clarify the roles and responsibilities of each of their respective groups. This will be an open forum where participants are encouraged to ask questions in order to build a common understanding of shared roles and responsibilities.
1 Hour Open Forum
Dr. Gokhan Danabasoglu – Climate and Global Dynamics – Oceanography – Sr. Scientist
Community Earth System Model (CESM)
Kathryn Newman
NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory and Developmental Testbed Center
Dr. Tom Auligne – Director
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA)
The vision set forth by EPIC, UFS, and UFS-R2O models itself after successful implementations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) communities. Representatives from each of these initiatives will present their successes with community modeling and will answer questions from participants.
(3) 30-Minute Sessions. 10-Minute Lecture followed by 20-Minute Q&A
5:30 | Close and break for dinner at Buffalo Wild Wings
July 19, 2022
9:00 – 9:10 | Welcome and Kickoff
Dr. Avichal Mehra – Dynamics and Coupled Modeling Group Chief
NCEP/EMC
Dr. Ehab A Meselhe, PE – Nicolas Altiero Distinguished Professor
Tulane University | School of Science and Engineering | Department of River-Coastal Science and Engineering
In the past, Earth scientists developed separate models to predict changes to atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land. Each model contained a set of assumptions; for example, if a particular variable was not included in the model, it was held constant. These independent systems fail to account adequately for the exchange of mass, energy, and momentum between the components, which led to significant model inaccuracies, especially at longer time scales. EPIC and UFS supports the development and improvement of a fully-coupled Earth system model framework for weather and climate predictions, which joins together multiple models for more accurate predictions. As part of this process, code infrastructure must be built to “couple,” or join, these independently-developed Earth systems model components.
EPIC and UFS are currently prioritizing improvements to the National Unified Operational Predicting Capability (NUOPC) Layer of the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The NUOPC Layer is the key to interoperability in NOAA’s operational forecasting systems. It provides generic components that can be customized and defines the rules for interactions and data sharing between components. The NUOPC layer also provides the required structure for the UFS to connect various model components into a fully coupled Earth system model.
(2) 15-Minute Presentations followed by 10 Minute Q&A
10:00 – 10 :30 | BREAK
Dr. Shachak Pe’eri – Division Chief of Coast Survey Development Lab (CSDL), Office of Coast Survey (OCS), National Ocean Service (NOS)
The Unified Forecast System Coastal Team Working Group
Dr. Vijay Tallapragada – Modeling and Data Assimilation Branch Chief
Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
Dr. James “Jim” Kinter – UFS-R2O Project Co-Lead, Professor at GMU, Director, The Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
George Mason University
Dr. Jeffrey Whitaker – UFS-R2O Project Co-Lead
Scientist at OAR/PSL
Dr. Arun Chawla – Chief of Engineering & Implementation Branch
National Center for Weather & Climate Prediction
Continuous Integration and Continuous Delivery (CI/CD) is an integral process within community modeling used to continuously integrate innovations into the model code base and support an agile framework. Members from the UFS Working Groups, EPIC, and UFS-R2O Development Teams will provide an overview of how they are connected to this process throughout the UFS/UFS-R2O funnel.
(3) 20-Minute Presentations
11:30 – 12:00 | Question and Answer Session
Presentation by Audrey Maran (Communications Specialist, NOAA Office of Education), “Student and Early Career Opportunities at NOAA,” covering how to find opportunities for students and recent graduates at NOAA and perspectives on NOAA’s fellowship and professional pathways. Open to all attendees and those with an interest in learning more about NOAA careers and next steps.
Join the virtual networking session at this link
Dr. Annette Hollingshead – Head of LOTMC Readiness Levels Task Force and R2X Transition Manager
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Annette Hollingshead, Transition Manager at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), will present the application of NOAA Readiness Levels (RLs) to describe Research & Development (R&D) project maturity at NOAA. In addition to developing R&D transition plans for AOML’s diverse R&D projects, Ms. Hollingshead is the Chair of the Readiness Level Training Task Force (RLTTF) that was set in place in November 2020 by the NOAA Line Office Transition Managers Committee (LOTMC) to address the challenges surrounding the use of RLs. The RLTTF is tasked with developing guidance and training materials to increase the utility of RLs within NOAA. Ms. Hollingshead will present the most current RL guidance as it relates to NOAA software R&D to operations
30 Minute Presentation with 30 Minute Q&A
Dr. Arun Chawla – Chief of Engineering & Implementation Branch
National Center for Weather & Climate Prediction
After a science upgrade(s) is(are) deemed ready for transition to operations, the modeling system goes through a series of steps to
- a) confirm that the upgrades improve the forecasts
- b) can run in the allocated time and
- c) customers have had enough time to be aware of upgrades coming so that they can adjust accordingly.
This presentation will provide a brief overview of the process so that they have insight on this R2O2R process
10 Minute Lecture followed by 20 minute Q&A
Dr. Arun Chawla – Chief of Engineering & Implementation Branch
National Center for Weather & Climate Prediction
Third party libraries play a critical role in software development as they allow developers not to redevelop something that has already been done. However, operational platforms do not have the same leeway as research platforms for accepting third party libraries. In many cases, modeling systems find out much later in the transition to operations phase that libraries that they depend upon cannot be put in operations, leading to considerable time spent looking for alternatives. This presentation will outline the challenges of third party libraries on operational platforms and lead a discussion on viable options.
10 Minute Lecture followed by 20 Minute Q&A
3:00 – 3:30 | BREAK
Virtual Break-Out Rooms
Moderated by Tara Jensen – Case Study #1 – METplus – Google meet link
Moderated by Brian Gockel – Case Study #2 – Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) – Google meet link
Moderated by Kenny James – Case Study #3 – Infrared Radiometer Data – Google meet link
Moderated by Rahul Mahajan – Case Study #4 – Creating Group Forks – Google meet link
In-Person Break-Out Rooms
Moderated by Michael Barlage and Michael Ek – Case Study #1 – Noah-MP: An R2O journey case study – Join in Break-out Room A
Moderated by Aaron Pratt – Case Study #2 – Stream Radar – Join in Break-out Room B
The workshop will break-out into breakout sessions. Each group will have a moderator present their research and highlight where it became stalled along the R2O2R process. Working groups will have the opportunity to ask questions and clarify their understanding. Together, the working groups will come up with solutions to how the scientist in their group could overcome their barrier to success.
Virtual Host: Mandy Parson
15 Minute Presentation | 15 Minute Q&A | 30 Minute Problem Solving Discussion
A representative from each breakout session will share their case study and the solutions discussed during their discussion.
(6) 15 Minute Presentations
July 20, 2022
9:00 – 9:10 | Welcome and Kickoff
Dr. Lisa Bengsston – Research Scientist / Meteorological Research
CIRES and NOAA ESRL PSL
The ultimate goal of the Physics Working Group is the development of a unified suite of atmospheric physical parameterizations that can be applied with minimal modification across convection-permitting to sub-seasonal to seasonal scales in the UFS. Model physical parameterizations describe the changes to variables at model grid-scales in forecast variables due to sub-grid scale diabatic processes, as well as resolved-scale physical processes.
Physical parameterization development has been a critical driver of increased forecast accuracy of global and regional models, as more processes are accounted for with sophistication appropriate for the model resolution and vertical domain. Key atmospheric processes that are parameterized in current global models include subgrid turbulent mixing in and above the boundary layer, cloud microphysics and ‘macrophysics’ (subgrid cloud variability), cumulus convection, radiative heating, and gravity wave drag. Parameterizations of surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes over land, ocean, and other bodies of water/ice, subgrid mixing within the ocean due to top and bottom boundary layers, gravity waves and unresolved eddies, land surface and sea ice properties are also important on weather and seasonal time scales.
Accurately yet efficiently incorporating this diversity of diabatic and transport effects in a global or regional forecast model is extremely demanding, requiring careful parameterization design that respects physical realism while supporting the range of model resolutions that will be used and a diagnosis of initialization and forecast errors that is tightly connected with the data assimilation system. Moreover, the interactions between various physical parameterizations play a major role in the prediction system forecast skill.
15-Minute Presentation followed by 10 Minute Q&A
Bengsston: Science Spotlight on Physics PDF
Dr. Dominikus Heinzeller – JEDI Infrastructure Lead
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA)
Complex applications like the Unified Forecast System (UFS) rely on a large number of third-party software packages to build and run. spack-stack is a joint effort between NOAA-EMC and JCSDA to deploy the required software dependencies for the UFS and other applications on a wide range of systems, from laptops over HPCs to cloud computing environments.
15-Minute Presentation followed by 10 Minute Q&A
10:00 – 10 :30 | BREAK
Short Range Weather – (View Abstract Details)
Jacob Carley | Status and Opportunities with the Rapid Refresh Forecast System
Adam Clark | Unified Forecasting System results from recent NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments
Miodrag Rancic | An overview of future research projects within UFS-RTMA framework
Samuel Degelia | Development and research of assimilating GOES-16 ABI all-sky radiance observations in FV3-LAM using hybrid EnVar
Nicholas Gasperoni | An FV3-LAM multiscale EnVar System for t 2021 and 2022 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecast Experiments: Systematic impact of valid time shifting to increase ensemble size
David Wright | Evaluating the Impacts of Hourly Updating Lake Surface Conditions on the Lake-Effect Snow Forecasting Capabilities of the Unified Forecast System’s Short-Range Weather Application
Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link
Medium Range Weather and Sub-seasonal – (View Abstract Details)
Sergey Frolov | Cycling prototypes: vehicle for collaboration and development of the MRW/S2S application NOAA OAR/PSL
Jian-Wen Bao | A Unified Stochastic Physics Framework for Simulating Uncertainty in Subgrid Processes
Weiwei Li | Physics Assessments by DTC in Support of the Upcoming GFS and GEFS 2024 Implementations
Bing Fu | The Development of UFS-based Coupled Global Ensemble Forecast System for weather and subseasonal forecast
Zachary Lawrence | A Diagnostic Toolbox for Evaluating Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Processes in NOAA’s UFS
Shan Sun | Simulating Aerosol Direct Effect on Subseasonal Prediction Using a Coupled UFS with GEFS-Aerosols Model
Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link
Hurricanes – (View Abstract Details)
Zhan Zhang | Toward Initial Operational Capability: Progresses, Challenges, and Issues in Developing and Improving Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)
Xuejin Zhang | Developing Initial Operational Capabilities of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Current and Future Priorities
William Ramstrom | Moving Nest Implementation in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)
Weiguo Wang | An Overview of HAFS physics parameterizations
Bin Liu | The Regional Ocean-Coupled HAFS with a Storm-Following Moving Nest and Inner-Core Vortex Initialization and Data Assimilation
Kyungmin Park | Coupled Model Development for Advanced Forecasting and Analysis of Extreme Water Levels
Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link
We will hold three concurrent sessions that will highlight the work that has been done for Short Range Weather, Medium Range/Sub-Seasonal Weather, and Hurricane Applications. Each presenter will have 15 minutes to present their research on their respective subject. If you are interested in submitting your work, please see our submission guidelines here.
Room A : Short Range Weather
Atmospheric behavior from less than an hour to several days. More information about the UFS Configuration here and current development by UFS R2O.
Room B: Medium Range Weather and Sub-seasonal
Medium-range weather includes atmospheric behavior out to about two weeks while sub-seasonal to seasonal includes atmospheric and ocean behavior from about two weeks to about one year. More information about the UFS Configuration and current development by UFS R2O.
Room C: Hurricanes
Hurricane track, intensity, and related effects out to about one week. More information about the UFS Configuration and current development by UFS R2O.
Virtual Hosts: Mandy Parson, Ligia Bernardet
(6) 15-Minute Presentations per Room
Jacob Carley | Status and Opportunities with the Rapid Refresh Forecast System
Adam Clark | Unified Forecasting System results from recent NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments
Miodrag Rancic | An overview of future research projects within UFS-RTMA framework
Samuel Degelia | Development and research of assimilating GOES-16 ABI all-sky radiance observations in FV3-LAM using hybrid EnVar
Nicholas Gasperoni | An FV3-LAM multiscale EnVar System for t 2021 and 2022 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecast Experiments: Systematic impact of valid time shifting to increase ensemble size
David Wright | Evaluating the Impacts of Hourly Updating Lake Surface Conditions on the Lake-Effect Snow Forecasting Capabilities of the Unified Forecast System’s Short-Range Weather Application
Sergey Frolov | Cycling prototypes: vehicle for collaboration and development of the MRW/S2S application NOAA OAR/PSL
Jian-Wen Bao | A Unified Stochastic Physics Framework for Simulating Uncertainty in Subgrid Processes
Weiwei Li | Physics Assessments by DTC in Support of the Upcoming GFS and GEFS 2024 Implementations
Bing Fu | The Development of UFS-based Coupled Global Ensemble Forecast System for weather and subseasonal forecast
Zachary Lawrence | A Diagnostic Toolbox for Evaluating Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Processes in NOAA’s UFS
Shan Sun | Simulating Aerosol Direct Effect on Subseasonal Prediction Using a Coupled UFS with GEFS-Aerosols Model
Zhan Zhang | Toward Initial Operational Capability: Progresses, Challenges, and Issues in Developing and Improving Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)
Xuejin Zhang | Developing Initial Operational Capabilities of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Current and Future Priorities
William Ramstrom | Moving Nest Implementation in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)
Weiguo Wang | An Overview of HAFS physics parameterizations
Bin Liu | The Regional Ocean-Coupled HAFS with a Storm-Following Moving Nest and Inner-Core Vortex Initialization and Data Assimilation
Kyungmin Park | Coupled Model Development for Advanced Forecasting and Analysis of Extreme Water Levels
Presentation by Keeli Otto (Employee Services Division, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) and Angela Dunn (Human Resources Business Advisor, Office of Human Capital Services), “Pathways Program Overview,” covering internships, recent graduate and Presidential Management Fellows programs, and USAJobs. Open to all attendees and those with an interest in learning more about NOAA careers and next steps.
Join the virtual networking session at this link
Michael Michaud – PhD Candidate | Disaster Science & Management
University of Delaware
Dr. Gina Eosco – Social Science Program Manager
Weather Program Office, NOAA OAR
Currently, community modeling emphasizes technological needs for designing the future of model innovation. Equally important is recognizing that people advance technology. Using social science knowledge, data, and methods, the future of modeling depends upon building a sense of community among its members and tying model advancements to societal value. Placing people first will allow members to thrive and innovate to advance the nation’s forecast modeling system.
1 Hour Presentation
Keynote: Eosco and Michaud PDF
Ayesha Wilkenson – Meteorologist, Chair-Elect of BRAID
National Weather Service, Boulder
Dr. Logan Dawson – Verification and Validation Team
EMC
Ashley Stagnari – William M. Lapenta Student Intern
Weather Program Office
The Young Career Workforce and Student Panel will address hurdles and barriers to entry into this field. They will speak to their own goals and how they plan to achieve them through community modeling.
(4) 15 Minute Presentations
3:00 – 3:30 | Q & A
3:30 – 4:00 | BREAK
Kristi Arsenault – The Global Hydro-Intelligence Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (GHI-S2S) Forecast System
Luiz Bacelar – How can we drastically decrease spin-up compute time for Land Surface Models while keeping the current physical parametrizations?
Hedanqiu Bai – The impact of tropical SST biases on the S2S precipitation forecast skill over the Contiguous United States in the UFS coupled mode
Daoyang Bao – A Numerical Investigation of Compound Flooding during Hurricane Harvey (2017) using a Dynamically Coupled Hydrological-Ocean Model
Li Bi – Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Regional Data Assimilation Experiments during 2021 Hurricane Season
Ricardo Campos – Visualization and validation methods applied to wave modeling
Carlos Carrillo – How predictable is short-term drought in the northeastern United States?
Dustin Grogan – Investigating the Impact of Aerosols on Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in the Unified Forecast System
Lucas Harris – The GFDL X-SHiELD Global Storm-Resolving Model: Weather and Climate Applications of an Earth Digital Twin
Song-You Hong – Representation of Partial Cloudiness Effect in a Bulk Cloud Microphysics Scheme
Gill-Ran Jeong – Updating Anthropogenic Emissions for NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast Systems for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols): Application of Bias Scaling Methods
Minsuk Ji – Operational Requirement Test System for the UFS Weather Model Development
Hyun-Sook Kim – Regional HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) coupling Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)
Jong Kim – Support for the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) with High Resolution Regional Modular Ocean Model v6 (MOM6) Initialization
Bill Lamberson – Better Utilization of UFS Ensemble Forecast Information Within the National Weather Service Through Ensemble Clustering and Sensitivity Tools
William Lewis – Toward More Cogent Scorecards
Gang Liu – NOAA Coral Reef Watch’s Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Outlook Product – Analyzing a Critical Prediction Tool for Coral Reef Management, Conservation Planning, and Communication
Xu Lu – Assimilating GOES-16 all-sky ABI radiances with the HAFS dual-resolution EnVar DA
Kevin Lupo – Displacement Error Characteristics of 500-hPa Troughs and Cutoff Lows in Operational GFS Forecasts
Yingtao Ma – Updates to the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) supporting advanced data assimilation within the UFS
Yanda Ou – Hydrodynamic and Biochemical Impacts on the Development of Hypoxia in the Louisiana– Texas Shelf: Statistical Modeling and Hypoxia Prediction
Linlin Pan – Impacts of different physics suites on Hurricane forecasting with the UFS Short-Range Weather Application
Malaquías Peña – Developing a consistent wind-wave-current data assimilation scheme for the 3D-RTMA Initialization
Manuel Pondeca – 3DRTMA development at NOAA’s NCEP and GSL: Status and challenges
Jonathan Poterjoy – Exploring new data assimilation methodology within the NOAA Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System
Rebecca Schwantes – Towards Enhanced Research Capabilities for Improving Air Quality and Atmospheric Composition Prediction within the Unified Forecasting System
Greg Seroka – NOS’ Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS)
Laura Slivinski – Overlapping Windows in a Global Hourly Data Assimilation System
Molly Smith – Recent development in the METexpress verification visualization system
Daniel Steinhoff – West-WRF NRT Forecast Simulations
Ruiyu Sun – Thompson Microphysics Scheme in the NOAA Unified Forecast System
Dustin Swales – Using UFS forcing with a single column model: Can we reduce the steps in the development hierarchy?
Youhua Tang – Compare and Evaluate JEDI AIRNow and AOD Assimilations for RRFS-CMAQ: a Case Study for Summer 2019
Patrick Tripp – IOOS Coastal Modeling Cloud Sandbox
Hailan Wang – Evaluating NOAA GEFSv12 Subseasonal Reforecasts for Predicting U.S. Drought
Siyuan Wang – Evaluating UFS-Aerosols using Global-Scale, Multi-Seasonal Suborbital Airborne Observations
Joannes Westerink – Developments of Global ESTOFS: Optimizing Global Tides and Driving Thermohaline Circulation by Downscaling Density from Global RTOFS
Tao Zhang – A New GFSv15 based Climate Model Dataset and Its Application to Problems in Climate Variability, and Predictability
Xiaochen Zhao – A High-resolution Operational Forecast System for Mississippi River Basin: Calibration for Lower Mississippi River Watershed
Posters and their Authors will be arranged in a gallery-style walk through in the main lobby. Conference participants are invited to meet and discuss science topics at length with authors.
This poster session will be hybrid so there will be two ways in which we conduct it. If you are in-person, you will walk through the ballroom and engage with our in-person presenters as you would at any other poster session.
If you are virtual, you will make your way to #posters channel and find all of the posters (as well as their google meet links) there.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to the virtual moderator on slack at @mandy.parson.
July 21, 2022
9:00 – 9:10 | Welcome and Kickoff
Dr. Xuguang Wang – Pressor; Presidential Research Professor; Robert Lowry Chair Professor
University of Oklahoma
Stelios Flampouris – Product Owner/Vice President
EPIC Platform Team/Tomorrow.io
This session will focus on new ideas in data assimilation, including ensembles, 4D-variational methods, observation sensitivity, and the potential for AI and ML to advance this process. Additionally, we will discuss idealized data assimilation software and methods for use in training and teaching in classes on NWP and DA.
(2) 15-Minute Presentations followed by 10 Minute Q&A
Wang: Science Spotlight PDF
Flampouris: Science Spotlight PDF
10:00 – 10 :30 | BREAK
Cross-Cutting Concepts 1 – (View Abstract Details)
Fanglin Yang | On the Development and Evaluation of Atmospheric Model Physics for the Unified Forecast System Applications Across Scales
Michael Barlage | Enhancing Community UFS Land Model Development Through Advancing Land Component and Land Data Assimilation Capabilities
Ali Abdolali | Advancements in WAVEWATCH III modeling Framework
Ricardo Todling | Bringing GSI Background Error Covariance Capability to JEDI
Bo Huang | JEDI-Based Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for Global Aerosol Forecasting at NCEP: System Development and Near-Real-Time Experiments
Chengsi Liu | Implementation, testing, and evaluation of radar data assimilation capabilities within the JEDI hybrid EnVar/EnKF system for the Rapid Refresh Forecast System
Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link
Cross-Cutting Concepts 2 – (View Abstract Details)
Marlon Johnson | Raytheon’s Approach to Fulfilling the Contract Project and Management Plan
Oliver Elbert | Pace: a Python-Based Implementation of FV3GFS / SHiELD for GPU and CPU Supercomputers
Brian Curtis | Unified Forecast System Weather Model: Building a code-base with multiple components and multiple applications
Ufuk Turuncoglu | Towards an Exchange Grid Implementation within the UFS
Maria Gehne | Diagnostics of Tropical Variability for Numerical Weather Forecasts
James Nelson | The Weather Prediction Center Development and Training Branch: R2O Activities within the Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT)
Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link
Emerging Applications – (View Abstract Details)
Rod Redmon | NOAA Center for Artificial Intelligence: Progress Toward an AI-Ready Agency
Saeed Moghimi | CoastalApp: A Coupling Infrastructure Developed in Partnership with Coastal Ocean Modeling Community
Peter Sheng | Applications of A Rapid Forecasting and Mapping System (RFMS) for Storm Surge, Wave, and Inundation
John Warner | Development and Applications of an Ocean, Infragravity Wave, Morphological, and Structural Response Coupled Nearshore Prediction System
Z. George Xue | A novel dynamically coupled ocean-river modeling suite for hurricane-induced compound flooding
Panagiotis Velissariou | On-Demand Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling Using the UFS Coastal Modeling Framework CoastalApp: A Case Study for Hurricane Florence (2018)
Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link
Emerging Applications – Coastal, Fire Weather, Space Weather, Hydrology – With an eye towards the future, this session will feature presentations about cutting-edge research towards the development, testing, and evaluation of upcoming UFS applications, including but not limited to, coastal, space weather, fire weather, and hydrology.
Cross-Cutting Concepts #1 – Physics, Data Assimilation, and Component Models – In this session featuring cross-cutting components of the Unified Forecast System (UFS), presentations will feature cutting-edge research that will impact multiple applications, including scale-aware physics, data assimilation, coupled data assimilation, coupling processes, and component models.
Cross-Cutting Concepts #2 – Model Architecture and Infrastructure, Verification and Validation, Post-Processing – In this session featuring cross-cutting components of the Unified Forecast System, presentations will feature cutting-edge research that will impact multiple applications, including modeling architecture and infrastructure, verification and validation, and postprocessing.
Virtual Hosts: Mandy Parson, Ligia Bernardet
(6) 15-Minute Presentations per Room
Cross-Cutting Concepts 1 – (View Abstract Details)
Fanglin Yang | On the Development and Evaluation of Atmospheric Model Physics for the Unified Forecast System Applications Across Scales
Michael Barlage | Enhancing Community UFS Land Model Development Through Advancing Land Component and Land Data Assimilation Capabilities
Ali Abdolali | Advancements in WAVEWATCH III modeling Framework
Ricardo Todling | Bringing GSI Background Error Covariance Capability to JEDI
Bo Huang | JEDI-Based Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for Global Aerosol Forecasting at NCEP: System Development and Near-Real-Time Experiments
Chengsi Liu | Implementation, testing, and evaluation of radar data assimilation capabilities within the JEDI hybrid EnVar/EnKF system for the Rapid Refresh Forecast System
Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link
Cross-Cutting Concepts 2 – (View Abstract Details)
Marlon Johnson | Raytheon’s Approach to Fulfilling the Contract Project and Management Plan
Oliver Elbert | Pace: a Python-Based Implementation of FV3GFS / SHiELD for GPU and CPU Supercomputers
Brian Curtis | Unified Forecast System Weather Model: Building a code-base with multiple components and multiple applications
Ufuk Turuncoglu | Towards an Exchange Grid Implementation within the UFS
Maria Gehne | Diagnostics of Tropical Variability for Numerical Weather Forecasts
James Nelson | The Weather Prediction Center Development and Training Branch: R2O Activities within the Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT)
Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link
Emerging Applications – (View Abstract Details)
Rod Redmon | NOAA Center for Artificial Intelligence: Progress Toward an AI-Ready Agency
Saeed Moghimi | CoastalApp: A Coupling Infrastructure Developed in Partnership with Coastal Ocean Modeling Community
Peter Sheng | Applications of A Rapid Forecasting and Mapping System (RFMS) for Storm Surge, Wave, and Inundation
John Warner | Development and Applications of an Ocean, Infragravity Wave, Morphological, and Structural Response Coupled Nearshore Prediction System
Z. George Xue | A novel dynamically coupled ocean-river modeling suite for hurricane-induced compound flooding
Panagiotis Velissariou | On-Demand Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling Using the UFS Coastal Modeling Framework CoastalApp: A Case Study for Hurricane Florence (2018)
Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link
12:00 – 1:00 | LUNCH
Dr. Vijay Tallapragada – Modeling and Data Assimilation Branch Chief
Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
NOAA EMC is developing a 5-year implementation plan that documents major development and operational implementation projects planned for the next five years (2022-2026) on the new NOAA operational supercomputer (WCOSS2). This plan also provides details on and how this fits within the broader NOAA Strategic Vision and Roadmap for modeling, the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Strategic Plan, as well as how EMC projects link with other model-related projects internally within NOAA and with the broader U.S. modeling community.
20 Minute Presentation with 10 minute Q&A
Tallapragada: 5 Year Strategy PDF
Dr. Maoyi Huang – Program Manager
Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC)
Dr. Neil Jacobs – Chief Science Advisor
The Unified Forecast System (UFS)
Dr. Ligia Bernardet
– Deputy Chief, Earth Prediction Advancement Division (EPAD)
NOAA Global Systems Laboratory
Dr. Arun Chawla – Chief, Engineering & Implementation Branch
Environmental Modeling Center, National Weather Service (NWS)
Dr. Vijay Tallapragada – Modeling and Data Assimilation Branch Chief
Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
Natalie Perlin – Sr. Systems Engineer
EPIC Engineering AUS Team, RedLine Performance, LLC
In this session, we will provide an overview of existing and planned public releases in the context of the UFS, including releases of operational configurations, cloud-ready prototypes and research.
How do we do this oriented configurations (including the graduate student tests), and UFS components? The overview will be followed by facilitated discussions on the following topics:
- What is the goal and who is the audience for UFS releases?
- How often should new releases happen and how long should each release be supported?
- What are the roles/responsibilities for supporting components and Apps?
- Which subcomponents should be supported as standalone?
- What strategies can be employed to engage the community in using the UFS? (e.g., unification of workflow for various UFS applications, support for research capabilities)
- What is the decision making process for releases?
TBD
3:00 – 3:30 | BREAK
Dr. Christiane Jablonowski – University of Michigan
Dr. Louis “Lou” Wicker – NOAA, National Severe Storms Laboratory
Dr. Eric Anderson – Colorado School of Mines
Dr. Ayumi Fujisake – University of Michigan
This session will cover use cases and research-related aspects of the UFS code that are of interest to the Earth system modeling community, but might not necessarily exist in the operational production configuration. While a primary goal of the UFS is to advance the operational systems, there are aspects of the community releases that will be unique to the broader research applications.
45 Minute Lecture followed by 30 minute Q&A
Jablonowski: Academia & UFS PDF
Wicker: Academia & UFS PDF
Anderson: Academia & UFS PDF
Fujisake: Academia & UFS PDF
Dr. James “Jim” Kinter – UFS-R2O Project Co-Lead, Professor at GMU, Director, The Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
George Mason University
Dr. Fred Carr – Professor Emeritus
The University of Oklahoma
Dr. Hendrik Tolman – Senior Advisor for Advanced Modeling Systems
National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI)
Dr. Neil Jacobs – Chief Science Advisor
The Unified Forecast System
This session will discuss various aspects of the proposed community governance structure at key decisions points spanning the flow process of community code releases, management, development, and the R2O process.
30 Minutes of Guided Questions Followed by 1 hour panel discussion
Carr, Kinter: CMB PDFs
July 22, 2022
9:00 – 9:10 | Welcome and Kickoff
Tara Jensen – Project Manager II
NCAR/RAL and DTC
Conventional performance-oriented verification metrics are routinely used to assess the skill of Earth system models. While these metrics are important for measuring progress, they do not, for the most part, provide insight into the causes of the model errors and biases. Model diagnostics including process-level testing and evaluation, which is focused on critical processes or phenomena, is indispensable to identify and understand the model error or bias sources and pinpoint areas for model improvements. To support the development of the Unified Forecast System (UFS), a broad range of model diagnostics and community tools will be needed.
(2) 15-Minute Presentations followed by 10 Minute Q&A
Jensen: Science Spotlight PDF
Marlon Johnson – Product Manager
EPIC
Information about the EPIC Program Management Plan.
25-Minute Presentation
Johnson: EPIC Program Management Plan PDF
10:00 – 10 :30 | BREAK
Leah Dubots – NOAA Modeling Board Secretariat
DOC | NOAA | OAR | Weather Program Office
Linda Taylor – Communications
National Weather Service (NWS)
Dr. Yan Xue – Program Manager, NWS/OSTI Modeling Program
National Weather Service (NWS)
During this session the speakers will provide an overview of opportunities for sustained engagement, future events, plans for user support, and communications platforms. We will look to the past to celebrate accomplishments and open the floor for discussion about future community needs and brainstorm how they may be fulfilled.
30 Minute Presentation
Xue, Taylor, Dubots: Gameplan for Sustained Engagement PDF
Dr. Neil Jacobs – Chief Science Advisor
The Unified Forecast System (UFS)
Dr. Jamese Sims – Director
National Weather Service (NWS)/Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) Modeling Program
Dr. Maoyi Huang – Program Manager
Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC)
For our final session, our three panelists from EPIC, UFS, and UFS-R2O will come together for a look back at our key findings and take-aways from the conference.
1 Hour Presentation
Abstract Details
This session will highlight the scientific achievements of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Short-Range Weather Application including research, development, testing, and evaluation of the 3D Real Time Mesoscale Analysis system (3DRTMA) and Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS).
This session will feature cutting-edge research toward the development, testing, and evaluation of the next generation Global Forecast System (GFS) for medium range weather out to 16 days and the Global Ensemble Forecast system (GEFS) for sub-seasonal ensemble forecasts out to 45 days based on the global coupled Unified Forecast System (UFS) Medium Range Weather (MRW) and Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) applications.
This session will feature cutting-edge research towards the development, testing, and evaluation of the next generation hurricane forecast system: the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).
With an eye towards the future, this session will feature presentations about cutting-edge research towards the development, testing, and evaluation of upcoming UFS applications, including but not limited to, coastal, space weather, fire weather, and hydrology.
In this session featuring cross-cutting components of the Unified Forecast System (UFS), presentations will feature cutting-edge research that will impact multiple applications, including scale-aware physics, data assimilation, coupled data assimilation, coupling processes, and component models.
In this session featuring cross-cutting components of the Unified Forecast System, presentations will feature cutting-edge research that will impact multiple applications, including modeling architecture and infrastructure, verification and validation, and postprocessing.
We invite community members to submit abstracts that highlight their successes and challenges working with research to operations to research (R2O2R) to get their innovations into operations. Abstracts highlighting successes and challenges with research to commercialization or product application are encouraged to highlight how UFS applications have been used in your context.
Share your research, use case, or innovation with other community members during our poster session and networking mixer! Abstract submissions to the poster session are encouraged.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many people will be
attending the workshop
in-person?
How many people will be attending the workshop in-person?
Due to venue limitations, attendance for in-person portions of the workshop will be limited to 200 people. Online attendance is unlimited.
What COVID precautions will be in place?
What COVID precautions will be in place?
The planning committee is taking steps to protect the health and safety of all of our participants. Here’s what we’re doing:
Monitoring community levels: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updates their community levels indicator weekly on Thursday’s at 8:00 pm ET. A member of our staff checks the community levels for College Park in Prince George’s County, MD every Friday morning to ensure the COVID community level remains LOW. Here’s our plan if the community levels change:
- MEDIUM: If the community level in Prince George’s County, MD changes to MEDIUM community transmission within two weeks of the workshop, the planning committee will take the following steps:
- Require that all attendees wear masks that comply with CDC guidelines (here)
- Require that all attendees show proof of vaccination OR provide proof of a negative COVID-19 test within three days of attending the workshop.
- All of the health information that you provide to us will follow health data management best practices.
- Limit in-person registration to 100 attendees to allow for social distancing.
- HIGH: If the community level in Prince George’s County, MD changes to HIGH community transmission within two weeks of the workshop, the planning committee will take the following steps:
- Require that all attendees wear masks that comply with CDC guidelines (here)
- Require that all attendees show proof of vaccination OR provide proof of a negative COVID-19 test within three days of attending the workshop.
- All of the health information that you provide to us will follow health data management best practices.
- Limit in-person registration to 75 attendees to allow for social distancing.
- At this point, the planning committee will strongly consider moving the event to fully virtual.
Venue Information
Venue Information
- Hotel staff will be required to wear masks until December 2022. This means that everyone serving food, providing maintenance, and helping you during your stay will be masked.
- Rooms and frequently touched surfaces are cleaned daily.
- The main workshop room does not have windows.
- Based on the number of people who attend the workshop, there will be 6-7 people seated at each table.
- Booking for Holiday in College Park: Group rate is $119/night plus 13% taxes and includes 1 voucher for a hot breakfast buffet.
Raytheon NOAA Program Room Block
