Events

Unifying Innovations in Forecasting Capabilities Workshop

A coordinated effort between EPIC, the UFS, and the UFS-R20

July 18th-22nd at the Holiday Inn in College Park, MD and virtually everywhere

Abstract Submissions are due by June 10th.  Registration ends on July 1st.

This summer the Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC), the Unified Forecast System (UFS), and the UFS Research to Operations community are coming together to deliver a five-day Unifying Innovations in Forecasting Capabilities Workshop. Throughout the week, attendees will have the opportunity to explore avenues for their own research development, learn about updates to the UFS, share successes within the scope of contributing the most reliable and accurate forecast modeling system in the world, and voice their thoughts on where our exciting future will go from here. It is the goal of the workshop to engage the greater weather enterprise and academia in the on-going effort to accelerate contributions to the Unified Forecast System. This first-of-its-kind event is your chance to dive into innovations in forecasting.

Workshop Schedule

Schedule subject to updates. Additional information will be added as we plan each session

All times Eastern

July 18, 2022

Presentation PDF:

Welcome Slides (pdf)

Mary EricksonDeputy Assistant Administrator

National Weather Service

Dr. Cisco WernerActing OAR Director

NOAA

Dr. Dorothy KochDirector

Weather Program Office (WPO)

Dr. Stephan SmithDirector of the Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI)

National Weather Service (NWS)

Dr. Neil JacobsChief Science Advisor

The Unified Forecast System (UFS)

Dr. Jamese SimsDirector

National Weather Service (NWS)/Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) Modeling Program

Dr. Maoyi HuangProgram Manager

Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC)

The Unifying Innovations in Forecasting Capabilities Workshop is presented this week by the Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC), The Unified Forecast System (UFS), and The Unified Forecast System Research to Operations (UFS-R2O). Representatives from the three communities will come together to share their vision about how they all work together to achieve the common goal of forecast improvements though advanced model capabilities.

10 Minutes Opening Remarks from NOAA Leadership

20 Minutes for Dr. Koch and Dr. Smith

50 Minutes Presentation by EPIC, the UFS and UFS-R2O

2:30 – 3:00 | BREAK

Dr. Neil JacobsChief Science Advisor

The Unified Forecast System (UFS)

Dr. Jamese SimsDirector

National Weather Service (NWS)/Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) Modeling Program

Dr. Maoyi HuangProgram Manager

Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC)

Dr. Hendrik Tolman – Senior Advisor for Advanced Modeling Systems

National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI)

A representative from EPIC, UFS, and UFS-R2O communities will participate in a panel discussion to clarify the roles and responsibilities of each of their respective groups. This will be an open forum where participants are encouraged to ask questions in order to build a common understanding of shared roles and responsibilities.

1 Hour Open Forum

Dr. Gokhan Danabasoglu Climate and Global Dynamics - Oceanography - Sr. Scientist

Community Earth System Model (CESM)

Kathryn Newman

NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory and Developmental Testbed Center

Dr. Tom Auligne – Director

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA)

The vision set forth by EPIC, UFS, and UFS-R2O models itself after successful implementations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) communities. Representatives from each of these initiatives will present their successes with community modeling and will answer questions from participants.

(3) 30-Minute Sessions. 10-Minute Lecture followed by 20-Minute Q&A

5:30 | Close and break for dinner at Buffalo Wild Wings

July 19, 2022

9:00 – 9:10 | Welcome and Kickoff

Dr. Avichal MehraDynamics and Coupled Modeling Group Chief

NCEP/EMC

Dr. Ehab A Meselhe, PENicolas Altiero Distinguished Professor

Tulane University | School of Science and Engineering | Department of River-Coastal Science and Engineering

In the past, Earth scientists developed separate models to predict changes to atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land. Each model contained a set of assumptions; for example, if a particular variable was not included in the model, it was held constant. These independent systems fail to account adequately for the exchange of mass, energy, and momentum between the components, which led to significant model inaccuracies, especially at longer time scales. EPIC and UFS supports the development and improvement of a fully-coupled Earth system model framework for weather and climate predictions, which joins together multiple models for more accurate predictions. As part of this process, code infrastructure must be built to “couple,” or join, these independently-developed Earth systems model components.

 

EPIC and UFS are currently prioritizing improvements to the National Unified Operational Predicting Capability (NUOPC) Layer of the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The NUOPC Layer is the key to interoperability in NOAA’s operational forecasting systems. It provides generic components that can be customized and defines the rules for interactions and data sharing between components. The NUOPC layer also provides the required structure for the UFS to connect various model components into a fully coupled Earth system model.

(2) 15-Minute Presentations followed by 10 Minute Q&A

10:00 – 10 :30 | BREAK

Dr. Shachak Pe'eriDivision Chief of Coast Survey Development Lab (CSDL), Office of Coast Survey (OCS), National Ocean Service (NOS)

The Unified Forecast System Coastal Team Working Group

Dr. Vijay TallapragadaModeling and Data Assimilation Branch Chief

Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Dr. James "Jim" KinterUFS-R2O Project Co-Lead, Professor at GMU, Director, The Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

George Mason University

Dr. Jeffrey WhitakerUFS-R2O Project Co-Lead

Scientist at OAR/PSL

Dr. Arun ChawlaChief of Engineering & Implementation Branch

National Center for Weather & Climate Prediction

Continuous Integration and Continuous Delivery (CI/CD) is an integral process within community modeling used to continuously integrate innovations into the model code base and support an agile framework. Members from the UFS Working Groups, EPIC, and UFS-R2O Development Teams will provide an overview of how they are connected to this process throughout the UFS/UFS-R2O funnel.

(3) 20-Minute Presentations

11:30 – 12:00 | Question and Answer Session

Presentation by Audrey Maran (Communications Specialist, NOAA Office of Education), "Student and Early Career Opportunities at NOAA,” covering how to find opportunities for students and recent graduates at NOAA and perspectives on NOAA’s fellowship and professional pathways. Open to all attendees and those with an interest in learning more about NOAA careers and next steps.

 

Join the virtual networking session at this link

Dr. Annette Hollingshead Head of LOTMC Readiness Levels Task Force and R2X Transition Manager

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

Annette Hollingshead, Transition Manager at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), will present the application of NOAA Readiness Levels (RLs) to describe Research & Development (R&D) project maturity at NOAA. In addition to developing R&D transition plans for AOML’s diverse R&D projects, Ms. Hollingshead is the Chair of the Readiness Level Training Task Force (RLTTF) that was set in place in November 2020 by the NOAA Line Office Transition Managers Committee (LOTMC) to address the challenges surrounding the use of RLs. The RLTTF is tasked with developing guidance and training materials to increase the utility of RLs within NOAA. Ms. Hollingshead will present the most current RL guidance as it relates to NOAA software R&D to operations

30 Minute Presentation with 30 Minute Q&A

Dr. Arun Chawla Chief of Engineering & Implementation Branch

National Center for Weather & Climate Prediction

After a science upgrade(s) is(are) deemed ready for transition to operations, the modeling system goes through a series of steps to

  • a) confirm that the upgrades improve the forecasts
  • b) can run in the allocated time and
  • c) customers have had enough time to be aware of upgrades coming so that they can adjust accordingly.

This presentation will provide a brief overview of the process so that they have insight on this R2O2R process

10 Minute Lecture followed by 20 minute Q&A

Dr. Arun Chawla Chief of Engineering & Implementation Branch

National Center for Weather & Climate Prediction

Third party libraries play a critical role in software development as they allow developers not to redevelop something that has already been done. However, operational platforms do not have the same leeway as research platforms for accepting third party libraries. In many cases, modeling systems find out much later in the transition to operations phase that libraries that they depend upon cannot be put in operations, leading to considerable time spent looking for alternatives. This presentation will outline the challenges of third party libraries on operational platforms and lead a discussion on viable options.

10 Minute Lecture followed by 20 Minute Q&A

3:00 – 3:30 | BREAK

Virtual Break-Out Rooms

Moderated by Tara Jensen Case Study #1 - METplus Google meet link

Moderated by Brian GockelCase Study #2 - Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Google meet link

Moderated by Kenny JamesCase Study #3 - Infrared Radiometer Data Google meet link

Moderated by Rahul MahajanCase Study #4 - Creating Group Forks Google meet link

 

In-Person Break-Out Rooms

Moderated by Michael Barlage and Michael Ek – Case Study #1 - Noah-MP: An R2O journey case study Join in Break-out Room A

Moderated by Aaron PrattCase Study #2 - Stream Radar Join in Break-out Room B

The workshop will break-out into breakout sessions. Each group will have a moderator present their research and highlight where it became stalled along the R2O2R process. Working groups will have the opportunity to ask questions and clarify their understanding. Together, the working groups will come up with solutions to how the scientist in their group could overcome their barrier to success.

 

Virtual Host: Mandy Parson

15 Minute Presentation | 15 Minute Q&A | 30 Minute Problem Solving Discussion

Representatives from each break-out session.

 

Google meet link.

A representative from each breakout session will share their case study and the solutions discussed during their discussion.

(6) 15 Minute Presentations

July 20, 2022

9:00 – 9:10 | Welcome and Kickoff

Dr. Lisa Bengsston Research Scientist / Meteorological Research

CIRES and NOAA ESRL PSL

The ultimate goal of the Physics Working Group is the development of a unified suite of atmospheric physical parameterizations that can be applied with minimal modification across convection-permitting to sub-seasonal to seasonal scales in the UFS. Model physical parameterizations describe the changes to variables at model grid-scales in forecast variables due to sub-grid scale diabatic processes, as well as resolved-scale physical processes.

 

Physical parameterization development has been a critical driver of increased forecast accuracy of global and regional models, as more processes are accounted for with sophistication appropriate for the model resolution and vertical domain. Key atmospheric processes that are parameterized in current global models include subgrid turbulent mixing in and above the boundary layer, cloud microphysics and ‘macrophysics’ (subgrid cloud variability), cumulus convection, radiative heating, and gravity wave drag. Parameterizations of surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes over land, ocean, and other bodies of water/ice, subgrid mixing within the ocean due to top and bottom boundary layers, gravity waves and unresolved eddies, land surface and sea ice properties are also important on weather and seasonal time scales.

 

Accurately yet efficiently incorporating this diversity of diabatic and transport effects in a global or regional forecast model is extremely demanding, requiring careful parameterization design that respects physical realism while supporting the range of model resolutions that will be used and a diagnosis of initialization and forecast errors that is tightly connected with the data assimilation system. Moreover, the interactions between various physical parameterizations play a major role in the prediction system forecast skill.

15-Minute Presentation followed by 10 Minute Q&A

Dr. Dominikus Heinzeller JEDI Infrastructure Lead

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA)

Complex applications like the Unified Forecast System (UFS) rely on a large number of third-party software packages to build and run. spack-stack is a joint effort between NOAA-EMC and JCSDA to deploy the required software dependencies for the UFS and other applications on a wide range of systems, from laptops over HPCs to cloud computing environments.

15-Minute Presentation followed by 10 Minute Q&A

10:00 – 10 :30 | BREAK

Short Range Weather – (View Abstract Details)

Jacob Carley | Status and Opportunities with the Rapid Refresh Forecast System

Adam Clark | Unified Forecasting System results from recent NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments

Miodrag Rancic | An overview of future research projects within UFS-RTMA framework

Samuel Degelia | Development and research of assimilating GOES-16 ABI all-sky radiance observations in FV3-LAM using hybrid EnVar

Nicholas Gasperoni | An FV3-LAM multiscale EnVar System for t 2021 and 2022 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecast Experiments: Systematic impact of valid time shifting to increase ensemble size

David Wright | Evaluating the Impacts of Hourly Updating Lake Surface Conditions on the Lake-Effect Snow Forecasting Capabilities of the Unified Forecast System’s Short-Range Weather Application

 

Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link

Medium Range Weather and Sub-seasonal – (View Abstract Details)

Sergey Frolov | Cycling prototypes: vehicle for collaboration and development of the MRW/S2S application NOAA OAR/PSL

Jian-Wen Bao | A Unified Stochastic Physics Framework for Simulating Uncertainty in Subgrid Processes

Weiwei Li | Physics Assessments by DTC in Support of the Upcoming GFS and GEFS 2024 Implementations

Bing Fu | The Development of UFS-based Coupled Global Ensemble Forecast System for weather and subseasonal forecast

Zachary Lawrence | A Diagnostic Toolbox for Evaluating Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Processes in NOAA's UFS

Shan Sun | Simulating Aerosol Direct Effect on Subseasonal Prediction Using a Coupled UFS with GEFS-Aerosols Model

 

Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link

Hurricanes – (View Abstract Details)

Zhan Zhang | Toward Initial Operational Capability: Progresses, Challenges, and Issues in Developing and Improving Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)

Xuejin Zhang | Developing Initial Operational Capabilities of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Current and Future Priorities

William Ramstrom | Moving Nest Implementation in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)

Weiguo Wang | An Overview of HAFS physics parameterizations

Bin Liu | The Regional Ocean-Coupled HAFS with a Storm-Following Moving Nest and Inner-Core Vortex Initialization and Data Assimilation

Kyungmin Park | Coupled Model Development for Advanced Forecasting and Analysis of Extreme Water Levels

 

Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link

We will hold three concurrent sessions that will highlight the work that has been done for Short Range Weather, Medium Range/Sub-Seasonal Weather, and Hurricane Applications. Each presenter will have 15 minutes to present their research on their respective subject. If you are interested in submitting your work, please see our submission guidelines here

 

Room A : Short Range Weather

Atmospheric behavior from less than an hour to several days. More information about the UFS Configuration here and current development by UFS R2O.

 

Room B: Medium Range Weather and Sub-seasonal 

Medium-range weather includes atmospheric behavior out to about two weeks while sub-seasonal to seasonal includes atmospheric and ocean behavior from about two weeks to about one year. More information about the UFS Configuration and current development by UFS R2O. 

 

Room C: Hurricanes

Hurricane track, intensity, and related effects out to about one week.  More information about the UFS Configuration and current development by UFS R2O.

 

Virtual Hosts: Mandy Parson, Ligia Bernardet

(6) 15-Minute Presentations per Room

Presentation by Keeli Otto (Employee Services Division, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) and Angela Dunn (Human Resources Business Advisor, Office of Human Capital Services), “Pathways Program Overview,” covering internships, recent graduate and Presidential Management Fellows programs, and USAJobs. Open to all attendees and those with an interest in learning more about NOAA careers and next steps.

 

Join the virtual networking session at this link

Michael Michaud PhD Candidate | Disaster Science & Management

University of Delaware

Dr. Gina Eosco Social Science Program Manager

Weather Program Office, NOAA OAR

Currently, community modeling emphasizes technological needs for designing the future of model innovation. Equally important is recognizing that people advance technology. Using social science knowledge, data, and methods, the future of modeling depends upon building a sense of community among its members and tying model advancements to societal value. Placing people first will allow members to thrive and innovate to advance the nation’s forecast modeling system.

1 Hour Presentation

Ayesha Wilkenson Meteorologist, Chair-Elect of BRAID

National Weather Service, Boulder

Dr. Logan Dawson Verification and Validation Team

EMC

Ashley StagnariWilliam M. Lapenta Student Intern

Weather Program Office

The Young Career Workforce and Student Panel will address hurdles and barriers to entry into this field. They will speak to their own goals and how they plan to achieve them through community modeling.

(4) 15 Minute Presentations

3:00 – 3:30 | Q & A

3:30 – 4:00 | BREAK

Kristi ArsenaultThe Global Hydro-Intelligence Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (GHI-S2S) Forecast System

Luiz BacelarHow can we drastically decrease spin-up compute time for Land Surface Models while keeping the current physical parametrizations?

Hedanqiu Bai The impact of tropical SST biases on the S2S precipitation forecast skill over the Contiguous United States in the UFS coupled mode

Daoyang BaoA Numerical Investigation of Compound Flooding during Hurricane Harvey (2017) using a Dynamically Coupled Hydrological-Ocean Model

Li BiHurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Regional Data Assimilation Experiments during 2021 Hurricane Season

Ricardo CamposVisualization and validation methods applied to wave modeling

Carlos CarrilloHow predictable is short-term drought in the northeastern United States?

Dustin GroganInvestigating the Impact of Aerosols on Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in the Unified Forecast System

Lucas HarrisThe GFDL X-SHiELD Global Storm-Resolving Model: Weather and Climate Applications of an Earth Digital Twin

Song-You HongRepresentation of Partial Cloudiness Effect in a Bulk Cloud Microphysics Scheme

Gill-Ran JeongUpdating Anthropogenic Emissions for NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast Systems for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols): Application of Bias Scaling Methods

Minsuk JiOperational Requirement Test System for the UFS Weather Model Development

Hyun-Sook KimRegional HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) coupling Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)

Jong Kim Support for the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) with High Resolution Regional Modular Ocean Model v6 (MOM6) Initialization

Bill LambersonBetter Utilization of UFS Ensemble Forecast Information Within the National Weather Service Through Ensemble Clustering and Sensitivity Tools

William LewisToward More Cogent Scorecards

Gang LiuNOAA Coral Reef Watch’s Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Outlook Product - Analyzing a Critical Prediction Tool for Coral Reef Management, Conservation Planning, and Communication

Xu LuAssimilating GOES-16 all-sky ABI radiances with the HAFS dual-resolution EnVar DA

Kevin LupoDisplacement Error Characteristics of 500-hPa Troughs and Cutoff Lows in Operational GFS Forecasts

Yingtao MaUpdates to the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) supporting advanced data assimilation within the UFS

Yanda OuHydrodynamic and Biochemical Impacts on the Development of Hypoxia in the Louisiana– Texas Shelf: Statistical Modeling and Hypoxia Prediction

Linlin PanImpacts of different physics suites on Hurricane forecasting with the UFS Short-Range Weather Application

Malaquías Peña Developing a consistent wind-wave-current data assimilation scheme for the 3D-RTMA Initialization

Manuel Pondeca3DRTMA development at NOAA’s NCEP and GSL: Status and challenges

Jonathan PoterjoyExploring new data assimilation methodology within the NOAA Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

Rebecca SchwantesTowards Enhanced Research Capabilities for Improving Air Quality and Atmospheric Composition Prediction within the Unified Forecasting System

Greg SerokaNOS’ Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS)

Laura SlivinskiOverlapping Windows in a Global Hourly Data Assimilation System

Molly SmithRecent development in the METexpress verification visualization system

Daniel SteinhoffWest-WRF NRT Forecast Simulations

Ruiyu SunThompson Microphysics Scheme in the NOAA Unified Forecast System

Dustin SwalesUsing UFS forcing with a single column model: Can we reduce the steps in the development hierarchy?

Youhua TangCompare and Evaluate JEDI AIRNow and AOD Assimilations for RRFS-CMAQ: a Case Study for Summer 2019

Patrick TrippIOOS Coastal Modeling Cloud Sandbox

Hailan WangEvaluating NOAA GEFSv12 Subseasonal Reforecasts for Predicting U.S. Drought

Siyuan WangEvaluating UFS-Aerosols using Global-Scale, Multi-Seasonal Suborbital Airborne Observations

Joannes WesterinkDevelopments of Global ESTOFS: Optimizing Global Tides and Driving Thermohaline Circulation by Downscaling Density from Global RTOFS

Tao ZhangA New GFSv15 based Climate Model Dataset and Its Application to Problems in Climate Variability, and Predictability

Xiaochen ZhaoA High-resolution Operational Forecast System for Mississippi River Basin: Calibration for Lower Mississippi River Watershed

Posters and their Authors will be arranged in a gallery-style walk through in the main lobby. Conference participants are invited to meet and discuss science topics at length with authors.

This poster session will be hybrid so there will be two ways in which we conduct it. If you are in-person, you will walk through the ballroom and engage with our in-person presenters as you would at any other poster session.

 

If you are virtual, you will make your way to #posters channel and find all of the posters (as well as their google meet links) there.

 

If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to the virtual moderator on slack at @mandy.parson.

July 21, 2022

9:00 – 9:10 | Welcome and Kickoff

Dr. Xuguang Wang Pressor; Presidential Research Professor; Robert Lowry Chair Professor

University of Oklahoma

Stelios Flampouris Product Owner/Vice President

EPIC Platform Team/Tomorrow.io

This session will focus on new ideas in data assimilation, including ensembles, 4D-variational methods, observation sensitivity, and the potential for AI and ML to advance this process.  Additionally, we will discuss idealized data assimilation software and methods for use in training and teaching in classes on NWP and DA.

(2) 15-Minute Presentations followed by 10 Minute Q&A

10:00 – 10 :30 | BREAK

Cross-Cutting Concepts 1 (View Abstract Details)

Fanglin Yang | On the Development and Evaluation of Atmospheric Model Physics for the Unified Forecast System Applications Across Scales

Michael Barlage | Enhancing Community UFS Land Model Development Through Advancing Land Component and Land Data Assimilation Capabilities

Ali Abdolali | Advancements in WAVEWATCH III modeling Framework

Ricardo Todling | Bringing GSI Background Error Covariance Capability to JEDI

Bo Huang | JEDI-Based Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for Global Aerosol Forecasting at NCEP: System Development and Near-Real-Time Experiments

Chengsi Liu | Implementation, testing, and evaluation of radar data assimilation capabilities within the JEDI hybrid EnVar/EnKF system for the Rapid Refresh Forecast System

 

Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link

Cross-Cutting Concepts 2 – (View Abstract Details)

Marlon Johnson | Raytheon's Approach to Fulfilling the Contract Project and Management Plan

Oliver Elbert | Pace: a Python-Based Implementation of FV3GFS / SHiELD for GPU and CPU Supercomputers

Brian Curtis | Unified Forecast System Weather Model: Building a code-base with multiple components and multiple applications

Ufuk Turuncoglu | Towards an Exchange Grid Implementation within the UFS

Maria Gehne | Diagnostics of Tropical Variability for Numerical Weather Forecasts

James Nelson | The Weather Prediction Center Development and Training Branch: R2O Activities within the Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT)

 

Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link

Emerging Applications – (View Abstract Details)

Rod Redmon | NOAA Center for Artificial Intelligence: Progress Toward an AI-Ready Agency

Saeed Moghimi | CoastalApp: A Coupling Infrastructure Developed in Partnership with Coastal Ocean Modeling Community

Peter Sheng | Applications of A Rapid Forecasting and Mapping System (RFMS) for Storm Surge, Wave, and Inundation

John Warner | Development and Applications of an Ocean, Infragravity Wave, Morphological, and Structural Response Coupled Nearshore Prediction System

Z. George Xue | A novel dynamically coupled ocean-river modeling suite for hurricane-induced compound flooding

Panagiotis Velissariou | On-Demand Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling Using the UFS Coastal Modeling Framework CoastalApp: A Case Study for Hurricane Florence (2018)

 

Virtual Attendees: Vimeo Live Stream Link

Emerging Applications - Coastal, Fire Weather, Space Weather, Hydrology - With an eye towards the future, this session will feature presentations about cutting-edge research towards the development, testing, and evaluation of upcoming UFS applications, including but not limited to, coastal, space weather, fire weather, and hydrology.

Cross-Cutting Concepts #1 - Physics, Data Assimilation, and Component Models - In this session featuring cross-cutting components of the Unified Forecast System (UFS), presentations will feature cutting-edge research that will impact multiple applications, including scale-aware physics, data assimilation, coupled data assimilation, coupling processes, and component models.

Cross-Cutting Concepts #2 - Model Architecture and Infrastructure, Verification and Validation, Post-Processing - In this session featuring cross-cutting components of the Unified Forecast System, presentations will feature cutting-edge research that will impact multiple applications, including modeling architecture and infrastructure, verification and validation, and postprocessing.

 

Virtual Hosts: Mandy Parson, Ligia Bernardet

(6) 15-Minute Presentations per Room

12:00 – 1:00 | LUNCH

Dr. Vijay Tallapragada Modeling and Data Assimilation Branch Chief

Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

NOAA EMC is developing a 5-year implementation plan that documents major development and operational implementation projects planned for the next five years (2022-2026) on the new NOAA operational supercomputer (WCOSS2).  This plan also provides details on and how this fits within the broader NOAA Strategic Vision and Roadmap for modeling, the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Strategic Plan, as well as how EMC projects link with other model-related projects internally within NOAA and with the broader U.S. modeling community.

20 Minute Presentation with 10 minute Q&A

Tallapragada: 5 Year Strategy PDF

Dr. Maoyi HuangProgram Manager

Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC)

Dr. Neil JacobsChief Science Advisor

The Unified Forecast System (UFS)

Dr. Ligia Bernardet

Deputy Chief,  Earth Prediction Advancement Division (EPAD)

NOAA Global Systems Laboratory

Dr. Arun ChawlaChief, Engineering & Implementation Branch

Environmental Modeling Center, National Weather Service (NWS)

Dr. Vijay TallapragadaModeling and Data Assimilation Branch Chief

Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Natalie PerlinSr. Systems Engineer

EPIC Engineering AUS Team, RedLine Performance, LLC

In this session, we will provide an overview of existing and planned public releases in the context of the UFS, including releases of operational configurations, cloud-ready prototypes and research. 

How do we do this oriented configurations (including the graduate student tests), and UFS components? The overview will be followed by facilitated discussions on the following topics:  

  • What is the goal and who is the audience for UFS releases? 
  • How often should new releases happen and how long should each release be supported? 
  • What are the roles/responsibilities for supporting components and Apps?  
  • Which subcomponents should be supported as standalone?  
  • What strategies can be employed to engage the community in using the UFS? (e.g., unification of workflow for various UFS applications, support for research capabilities) 
  • What is the decision making process for releases?

TBD

3:00 – 3:30 | BREAK

Dr. Christiane JablonowskiUniversity of Michigan

Dr. Louis "Lou" WickerNOAA, National Severe Storms Laboratory

Dr. Eric AndersonColorado School of Mines

Dr. Ayumi FujisakeUniversity of Michigan

This session will cover use cases and research-related aspects of the UFS code that are of interest to the Earth system modeling community, but might not necessarily exist in the operational production configuration.  While a primary goal of the UFS is to advance the operational systems, there are aspects of the community releases that will be unique to the broader research applications.

45 Minute Lecture followed by 30 minute Q&A

Dr. James "Jim" KinterUFS-R2O Project Co-Lead, Professor at GMU, Director, The Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

George Mason University

Dr. Fred CarrProfessor Emeritus

The University of Oklahoma

Dr. Hendrik TolmanSenior Advisor for Advanced Modeling Systems

National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI)

Dr. Neil JacobsChief Science Advisor

The Unified Forecast System

This session will discuss various aspects of the proposed community governance structure at key decisions points spanning the flow process of community code releases, management, development, and the R2O process.

30 Minutes of Guided Questions Followed by 1 hour panel discussion

Carr, Kinter: CMB PDFs

July 22, 2022

9:00 – 9:10 | Welcome and Kickoff

Tara JensenProject Manager II

NCAR/RAL and DTC

Conventional performance-oriented verification metrics are routinely used to assess the skill of Earth system models.  While these metrics are important for measuring progress, they do not, for the most part, provide insight into the causes of the model errors and biases. Model diagnostics including process-level testing and evaluation, which is focused on critical processes or phenomena, is indispensable to identify and understand the model error or bias sources and pinpoint areas for model improvements. To support the development of the Unified Forecast System (UFS), a broad range of model diagnostics and community tools will be needed.

(2) 15-Minute Presentations followed by 10 Minute Q&A

Marlon JohnsonProduct Manager

EPIC

Information about the EPIC Program Management Plan.

25-Minute Presentation

10:00 – 10 :30 | BREAK

Leah DubotsNOAA Modeling Board Secretariat

DOC | NOAA | OAR | Weather Program Office

Linda Taylor Communications

National Weather Service (NWS)

Dr. Yan Xue Program Manager, NWS/OSTI Modeling Program

National Weather Service (NWS)

During this session the speakers will provide an overview of opportunities for sustained engagement, future events, plans for user support, and communications platforms. We will look to the past to celebrate accomplishments and open the floor for discussion about future community needs and brainstorm how they may be fulfilled.

30 Minute Presentation

Dr. Neil JacobsChief Science Advisor

The Unified Forecast System (UFS)

Dr. Jamese SimsDirector

National Weather Service (NWS)/Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) Modeling Program

Dr. Maoyi HuangProgram Manager

Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC)

For our final session, our three panelists from EPIC, UFS, and UFS-R2O will come together for a look back at our key findings and take-aways from the conference.

1 Hour Presentation

Abstract Details

This session will highlight the scientific achievements of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Short-Range Weather Application including research, development, testing, and evaluation of the 3D Real Time Mesoscale Analysis system (3DRTMA) and Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS).

This session will feature cutting-edge research toward the development, testing, and evaluation of the next generation Global Forecast System (GFS) for medium range weather out to 16 days and the Global Ensemble Forecast system (GEFS) for sub-seasonal ensemble forecasts out to 45 days based on the global coupled Unified Forecast System (UFS) Medium Range Weather (MRW) and Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) applications.

This session will feature cutting-edge research towards the development, testing, and evaluation of the next generation hurricane forecast system:  the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).

With an eye towards the future, this session will feature presentations about cutting-edge research towards the development, testing, and evaluation of upcoming UFS applications, including but not limited to, coastal, space weather, fire weather, and hydrology.

In this session featuring cross-cutting components of the Unified Forecast System (UFS), presentations will feature cutting-edge research that will impact multiple applications, including scale-aware physics, data assimilation, coupled data assimilation, coupling processes, and component models.

In this session featuring cross-cutting components of the Unified Forecast System, presentations will feature cutting-edge research that will impact multiple applications, including modeling architecture and infrastructure, verification and validation, and postprocessing.

We invite community members to submit abstracts that highlight their successes and challenges working with research to operations to research (R2O2R) to get their innovations into operations. Abstracts highlighting successes and challenges with research to commercialization or product application are encouraged to highlight how UFS applications have been used in your context.

Share your research, use case, or innovation with other community members during our poster session and networking mixer! Abstract submissions to the poster session are encouraged.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many people will be

attending the workshop

in-person? 

How many people will be attending the workshop in-person?

Due to venue limitations, attendance for in-person portions of the workshop will be limited to 200 people. Online attendance is unlimited.

What COVID precautions will be in place?

What COVID precautions will be in place?

The planning committee is taking steps to protect the health and safety of all of our participants. Here’s what we’re doing:

Monitoring community levels: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updates their community levels indicator weekly on Thursday’s at 8:00 pm ET. A member of our staff checks the community levels for College Park in Prince George’s County, MD every Friday morning to ensure the COVID community level remains LOW. Here’s our plan if the community levels change:

 
  • MEDIUM:  If the community level in Prince George’s County, MD changes to MEDIUM community transmission within two weeks of the workshop, the planning committee will take the following steps: 
 
    • Require that all attendees wear masks that comply with CDC guidelines (here) 
 
    • Require that all attendees show proof of vaccination OR provide proof of a negative COVID-19 test within three days of attending the workshop. 
 
      • All of the health information that you provide to us will follow health data management best practices. 
 
  • Limit in-person registration to 100 attendees to allow for social distancing. 

 

  • HIGH: If the community level in Prince George’s County, MD changes to HIGH community transmission within two weeks of the workshop, the planning committee will take the following steps: 
    •  

    • Require that all attendees wear masks that comply with CDC guidelines (here)
 
    • Require that all attendees show proof of vaccination OR provide proof of a negative COVID-19 test within three days of attending the workshop. 
 
      • All of the health information that you provide to us will follow health data management best practices. 
 
  • Limit in-person registration to 75 attendees to allow for social distancing.
 
  • At this point, the planning committee will strongly consider moving the event to fully virtual. 
 
To learn more about community levels and COVID prevention at each level, please visit https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/community-levels.html#anchor_47145 

Venue Information

Venue Information

  1.  
We’re working with the venue to provide you with as much information as possible. Here’s what we know so far:
  • Hotel staff will be required to wear masks until December 2022. This means that everyone serving food, providing maintenance, and helping you during your stay will be masked. 

 
  • Rooms and frequently touched surfaces are cleaned daily. 

 
  • The main workshop room does not have windows. 

 
  • Based on the number of people who attend the workshop, there will be 6-7 people seated at each table. 

 

  • Booking for Holiday in College Park:  Group rate is $119/night plus 13% taxes and includes 1 voucher for a hot breakfast buffet.
    Raytheon NOAA Program Room Block

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